Undulating Ungulate

A few weeks back I went to see Richard Heinberg , one of the world’s leading peak oil experts, speak about Life After Oil. It was a refreshing kick in the ass from one who has mastered the material.

Not sure I have time to do the content justice, and I have talked about this stuff before (notably the analysis in the “dear Ethel” posts seems to be become more relevant), but here are the key points:

* a century of cheap energy has fueled the economic growth and lifestyle we have become accustomed to.

* we are probably already in the peaking period – production seems to be declining at about 1%/year – remaining unexploited reserves are hard to get

* available oil exports will shrink before peak and shrink much more rapidly than peak, as exporters/producers own increasing consumption will cut into available exports

(ie) peak oil means supply problems well before we run out

* mitigation must happen a decade in advance to be effective, otherwise price increases and volatility will cause huge social, economic and political costs with unprecedented risks

* the market will not solve this problem – the price signal comes too late

* solutions exist but take 20-25 years to implement; we need action now.

* our dependence on fossil fuels is cause of both peak oil and climate change

* our best hope is a proactive response, and slow decline of reserves. we can do something about only one of those. fundamentally we need behaviour change that is presently politically unfeasible

If you are interested in the policy or government level of this, check out
Post Carbon Cities.

Filed by billy at 3:47 pm under consciousness,culture,politics,the world
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